Oscar predictions

War Horse

Adapted Screenplay is a shoo-in, Best Director and Picture distinct possibilities, and the film’s episodic nature makes for a fistful of Supporting Actor options.

Realistically?

It’s still a kids movie, and the Academy don’t usually go there. But the mixture of sentiment and grandiosity could prove irresistible.

J Edgar

Clint Eastwood’s brooding biopic of the former FBI director has had a mixed reception from critics in the US: some have praised its rigorous insight while others found it rather slight and self-serious.

Most likely to win? Clint has taken the big prizes before, so don’t expect any action in that department. A nod for Leonardo DiCaprio in the lead role is likely, a win less so – but his make-up artists should be a pretty safe bet.

Realistically? The film simply hasn’t got enough love from either critics or audiences to be a serious contender. 

My Week with Marilyn

This featherlight, behind-the-scenes tale of Marilyn Monroe and Laurence Olivier has garnered some solid reviews, but few critics have been bowled over.

Most likely to win? Michelle Williams will be up against stiff competition in the Battle of the Brit-centric biopics (see ‘The Iron Lady’) – but as perhaps the finest young American actress working today, we reckon she deserves the win.

Realistically? The film itself may get a screenplay nod, but little more. But with a little luck, Williams will take home gold.

The Iron Lady

This boisterous biopic of our one-time overlord, Margaret Thatcher, has everything the Academy loves: stiff-upper-lipped Brits, political controversy and a powerhouse central performance from Meryl Streep.

Most likely to win? It’ll be 30 years since Streep last won the Best Actress award , despite repeated nominations. Her Maggie has been the focus of most press reviews, and the consensus is that she’s the one to beat – though she’s been here before, 14 times.

Realistically? Considering few Academy members had to suffer under the Thatcher regime, they’ll bring no political baggage to this slick slice of establishment propaganda. The result could be a slew of nominations, including Best Picture and Original Screenplay. Don’t forget this one (like ‘My Week with Marilyn’) has the full force of producer-distributor Harvey Weinstein behind it.

Martha Marcy May Marlene

Every year, the Academy selects an indie-movie dark horse as proof that they’re still in touch with the world beyond the multiplex. In 2012, it could well be this Sundance-conquering tale of a young girl who flees a religious cult.

Most likely to win? Much of the excitement around the film has focused on newcomer Elizabeth Olsen (sister of Mary-Kate and Ashley), who delivers a strikingly committed performance in the lead role. But don’t rule out noms for Original Screenplay, Best Picture and Best Director for first-timer Sean Durkin.

Realistically? The Academy loves to dish out nominations to this kind of small-scale surprise, but they rarely win (unless the Coen Brothers are involved). Still the publicity will do wonders for Durkin, Olsen and this excellent film.

The Descendants

Alexander Payne’s bittersweet tale of a father (George Clooney) of two daughters facing up to family tragedy had very positive reviews on its recent US release.

Most likely to win? Best Adapted Screenplay is a possibility, and it has to be an outside bet for the Best Picture prize. George Clooney will surely be nominated for Best Actor.

Realistically? It will probably prove to be a little too laidback – a little too literary – to win big on the night, although we may be very wrong.

Shame

British director Steve McQueen’s film has Michael Fassbender as a New York bachelor with an addiction to sex and an awkward relatioship with his younger sister (Carey Mulligan). It’s racy, daring stuff.

Most likely to win? Surely McQueen’s film is too out-there and explicit to get too many nods from Academy voters? But could Michael Fassbender squeeze a nomination for Best Actor? Or McQueen even for Best Director? Most likely is that Carey Mulligan is nominated – and even wins – Best Supporting Actress, depending, of course, on the competition.

Realistically? ‘Shame’ is much more likely to feel the love at the Baftas than the Oscars.

The Artist

Michel Haznavicius’s black-and-white, near-mute tribute to silent cinema at the dawn of the ‘talkies’ won over the industry at Cannes in May and has been wowing audiences ever since.

Most likely to win? It could snatch Best Picture, and if it does that then Best Director is a possibility, too, although the fact that director Haznavicius is a largely unknown Frenchman doesn’t stand in its favour. Dishy and chiselled leading man Jean Dujardin should be nominated for Best Actor – the prize he won at Cannes.

Realistically? Don’t rule this out for Best Picture. The Academy – and especially its older members, of which there are many – may fall in love with its warm, reverent attitude to old Hollywood.

The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo

David Fincher (‘The Social Network’) has travelled to Sweden to shoot a new, English-language version of Stieg Larsson’s hugely well-liked novel. Reviews and reactions haven’t yet started to trickle out of early screenings.

Most likely to win? Fincher and writer Steven Zaillian  (‘Schindler’s List’) are popular with the Academy, but maybe they’ve had their moment before. Best Adapted Screenplay is probably most likely. Although word is very good on Rooney Mara as Lisbeth Salander – could she get a Best Actress nomination? And even beat perennial also-ran Meryl Streep to the big prize?

Realistically? ‘…Dragon Tattoo’ may prove to be too raw and weird for Academy voters as Fincher has been adamant about sticking to the dark side of the novel.

Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close

Stephen Daldry’s adaptation of Jonanthan Safran Foer’s novel about a young child on a mystery quest in post-9/11 New York City has been seen by no one to date – so remains the dark horse of the Oscar race.

Most likely to win? Screenwriter Eric Roth wrote both ‘Forrest Gump’ and ‘The Curious Case of Benjamin Button’ – two Oscar-friendly heartwarmers. So, without seeing it, it’s impossible to rule out this one going all the way.

Realistically? The ingredients are there on paper – it just depends on how the movie turns out. And why hasn’t it been unveiled to the rest of the industry yet? It could just be unfinished – and its Oscars-friendly release date of Christmas Day in the US suggests the makers know what they’re doing. Producer Scott Rudin and director Stephen Daldry certainly have Oscar form, having collaborated on ‘The Reader’ and ‘The Hours’ together.

More films, film reviews, film festivals and special screenings in Sydney? Sign up for our weekly newsletter