ARIA Awards 2010

Oh, what a night of glittering goodness: and Andrew P Street offers his mea culpas. And reminds you that he damn well said it would be hard to predict…

It's a changing of the guard this year, says ARIA. The 2010 awards boast a new venue, a new voting system and plenty of fresh, new faces as a living testament to Australia's great young talent and hope for the future of blah blah blah. And the weird thing is, that's actually pretty much the case: not only are the nominations skewed strongly to new artists, they're also exceptionally… well, good.

No, honestly: this year has seen great albums by Washington, Tame Impala, Sia, Birds of Tokyo, Angus & Julia Stone, Dan Sultan, Space Invadas, Cloud Control, Philadelphia Grand Jury, Perry Keyes, Clare Bowditch, the Temper Trap and many, many more. And we're not talking decent-enough-given-that-they're-Australian albums, but actual kick-arse releases that not only deserve to win awards, but might actually do so.

The downside to this cavalcade of talent is, of course, that this makes it extra hard to make predictions as to who's going to win. So, before I metaphorically disrobe and reveal my dangling prognostications to the world's cruel gaze, here are some caveats:

1. Each year there is typically one female artist who sweeps almost every category in which they are nominated. Only one male artist has ever managed a clean sweep – John Farnham post-Whispering Jack in 1987 – and surprisingly few bands have done so. Yet the likes of Missy Higgins, Natalie Imbruglia, Kylie Minogue, Delta Goodrem, Kasey Chambers and Gabriella Cilmi have all come, seen and comprehensively conquered. The downside is that their one big year is normally the only one they ever enjoy, while bands like Powderfinger, Silverchair and Midnight Oil will consistently pick up a few awards any year they're nominated. So, with this in mind, I'm predicting that 2010 will be the year when Megan Washington takes out the lion's share of the female categories, with a spill over into breakthroughs.

2. Given who votes for these awards, visibility counts for a lot. A great record by an unknown artist might scrape into the nominations, but it's unlikely to beat an average record by a high-profile artist. That's simply because the voters in the commercial radio or retail blocs probably have never heard of Perry Keyes, but have had Neil Finn on drive time, or knocked up window displays for major label priorities.

3. While the voting process has changed this year, I'm making the same glib assertions that I have in other years: the best-known name in the September of that year will win any niche category, as most voters don't listen to non-mainstream music. This might all change with the new second-round favourite votes, but I'm guessing it won't.

So, with all those nice slippery qualifications in place, and acknowledging that never in my lifetime has there been a less predictable ARIAs, let's go predict us some ARIAs!

Album of the Year

Angus & JuliaStone Down The Way (Original Matters/EMI)
Birds of Tokyo Birds Of Tokyo (EMI)
Sia We Are Born (Monkey Puzzle/Inertia)
Tame Impala Innerspeaker (Modular Recordings)
Washington I Believe You Liar (Mercury/UMA)

Who should win: They're all really good albums, to be honest, but I'd be happiest with Tame Impala or Washington.
Who will win: Washington. It's just that good an album, and Megan Washington has gone above and beyond in promoting it. People are super-aware of it and – as expressed above, I reckon she's going to sweep 2010.
RESULT: Angus & Julia Stone. But what the bloody hell was with that speech? So all their songs are written by their dog, right?

Single of the Year

Angus & Julia Stone 'Big Jet Plane' (Original Matters/EMI)
Birds of Tokyo 'Plans' (EMI)
Sia 'Clap Your Hands' (Monkey Puzzle/Inertia)
The Temper Trap 'Love Lost' (Liberation Music)
Washington 'How to Tame Lions' (Mercury/UMA)

Who should win: Washington, if 'Rich Kids' was in the running.
Who will win: Could be any, but my heart says Temper Trap. Or maybe Birds of Tokyo. Or, y'know, Washington.
RESULT: Angus & Julia Stone. Julia was a solid glockenspiel note out the whole time they played live, by the way.

Best Female Artist

Clare Bowditch Modern Day Addiction (Island/UMA)
Kylie Minogue Aphrodite (Mushroom Records/Warner Music)
Lisa Mitchell 'Oh! Hark!' (Warner Music Australia)
Sia We Are Born (Monkey Puzzle/Inertia)
Washington I Believe You Liar (Mercury/UMA)

Who should win: Washington or Bowditch. They're both great albums.
Who will win:Probably Washington, although Kylie's got the name factor. Mitchell's too last year, Bowditch is too indie and Sia's too weird for most of the voters.
RESULT: Sia: weirdness wins! And that was the best speech of the night, hands down.

Best Male Artist

Dan Kelly Dan Kelly's Dream (Shock)
Dan Sultan Get Out While You Can (MGM)
Guy Sebastian Like It Like That (Sony Music)
John Butler April Uprising (Jarrah Records/MGM)
Paul Dempsey 'Fast Friends' (EMI)

Who should win: Dan Kelly. His album's freakin' great.
Who will win: Dan Sultan. He swept the AIR awards last month – sorry, the Jägermeister Independent Awards – and the man's had one hell of a year. But, again, Butler's got the name that voters who don't much care for the new music remember, so it's hard to rule him out.
RESULT: Dan Sultan. Goddamn, about time one was right...

Best Group

Angus & Julia Stone Down the Way (Original Matters/EMI)
Birds of Tokyo Birds of Tokyo (EMI)
Powderfinger Golden Rule (UMA)
Tame Impala Innerspeaker (Modular Recordings)
The Temper Trap Love Lost (Liberation Music)

Who should win: The Temper Trap have had an incredible year worldwide, Birds of Tokyo broke through to the mainstream, and Tame Impala and Angus & Julia made huge inroads overseas...
Who will win: ...so it's a relief that Powderfinger, who will win, are in this category because otherwise it'd be impossible to guess.
RESULT: The Temper Trap.  Australia says fuck you, Powderfinger!

Best Independent Release

Art vs Science Magic Fountain (Green/MGM)
Dan Sultan Get Out While You Can (MGM)
Eddy Current Suppression Ring Rush to Relax (Suppression Records/Shock)
John Butler Trio April Uprising (Jarrah Records/MGM)
Sia We Are Born (Monkey Puzzle/Inertia)

Who should win: Dan Sultan
Who will win: Could be Sultan, could be the on-the-cusp Art vs Science, or it could be John Butler simply for being recognisable. I'm swaying toward Butler on this one. Sia, again, is too odd, and ECSR are a) not well enough known, and b) put out a disappointingly drab record for which they shouldn't be rewarded.
RESULT: Sia again! Lordy.

Best Adult Alternative Album

Angus & JuliaStone Down The Way (Original Matters/EMI)
Basement Birds Basement Birds (Basement Birds)
Clare Bowditch Modern Day Addiction (Island/UMA)
The Cat Empire Cinema (EMI)
Washington I Believe You Liar (Mercury/UMA)
Whitley Go Forth, Find Mammoth (Dew Process/Universal Music)

Who should win:Washington
Who will win: Angus & Julia, although Basement Birds could be a surprise and Washington's definitely in the running. Whitey, Clare, Cat Empire: thanks for showing up.
RESULT: Angus & Julia Stone. OK, that's another one for the "win" side.

Best Adult Contemporary Album

Angie Hart Eat My Shadow (ABC Music)
Crowded House Intriguer (UMA)
Jimmy Barnes The Rhythm and the Blues (Liberation Music)
Lisa Miller Car Tape 2 (Raoul/Other Tongues)
Perry Keyes Johnny Ray's Downtown (Laughing Outlaw/Inertia)

Who should win: Crowded House, or Perry Keyes.
Who will win: Crowded House. Look, it's a damn good record and a million times superior to the snoozefest of Time on Earth. They genuinely deserve it and when they win they'll inspire all sorts of online debates over how Australian a band made up of a New Zealander, two Americans and a Melbourne boy who lives in Ireland actually is. Perry's album is amazing, but no one's heard it. Angie and Lisa haven't got a prayer. And Jimmy? Nope.
RESULT: Crowded House. Yeah, back on track.

Best Blues & Roots Album

Ash Grunwald Hot Mama Vibes (Delta Groove/Shock)
Dan Sultan Get Out While You Can (MGM)
Jeff Lang Chimeradour (ABC Music)
John Butler Trio April Uprising (Jarrah Records/MGM)
The Wilson Pickers Shake It Down (ABC Music)

Who should win: Sultan, though Grunwald and Lang have also done excellent work this year.
Who will win: John Butler Trio. Sultan can't beat the recognisability factor.
RESULT: Dan Sultan. So it was a moral victory, then.

Best Country Album

Adam HarveyBoth Sides Now (Sony Music)
Catherine BrittCatherine Britt (ABC Music)
Jason WalkerCeiling Sun Letters (Laughing Outlaw/Inertia)
Lee Kernaghan Planet Country (ABC Music)
The McClymontsWrapped Up Good (UMA)

Who should win: Jason Walker. Sure, we're biased since he used to work at Time Out Sydney (hi, Jase!) but his album's superb – although calling it "country" is a bit of a misnomer since there's so, so much more to it than that...
Who will win: ...but no one's asking Jason to do McDonalds ads, so Lee Kerhaghan it is. Harvey could be a dark horse, since his album is doing... nah, it'll be Kernaghan.
RESULT: The McClymonts. Goddamn, this is less predictable than I thought.

Best Dance Release

Art vs ScienceMagic Fountain (Green/MGM)
Miami Horror 'Sometimes' (EMI)
Midnight Juggernauts The Crystal Axis (Siberia/Inertia)
PendulumImmersion (Warner Bros UK)
Yolanda Be Cool and Dcup 'We No Speak Americano' (Sweat it Out/Central Station Records)

Who should win: Well, Midnight Juggernauts won this category at the Indie Awards, and that seemed fair enough.
Who will win: Probably Art vs Science. Miami Horror would be in with a chance too.
RESULT: Yoland Be Cool & Dcup. Whoops.

Best Hard Rock/Heavy Metal Album

AirbourneNo Guts, No Glory (EMI)
Dead Letter CircusThis is the Warning (Warner Music Australia)
Parkway DriveDeep Blue (Resist Records/Shock)
The Amity AfflictionYoungbloods (Boomtown/Shock)
Violent SohoViolent Soho (Liberation Music)

Who should win: They're all winners. Or, at least, they all look far tougher than me and I have enough enemies as it is.
Who will win: Parkway Drive or, slightly less likely, Dead Letter Circus. Airbourne are still around? Aww! Good on them!
RESULT: Parkway Drive. Yeah, we knows the rock. 

Best Pop Release

BluejuiceHead of the Hawk (Dew Process/Universal Music)
Empire of the Sun 'Half Mast' (EMI)
Guy Sebastian Like It Like That (Sony Music)
Kylie Minogue Aphrodite (Warner Music Australia)
SiaWe Are Born (Monkey Puzzle/Inertia)

Who should win: Kylie. Aphrodite is a great pop album, no question about it, and one of her best efforts. Head of the Hawk is great, but look at those other acts. Poor Bluejuice: defy easy categorisation and see where it gets you.
Who will win: Kylie.
RESULT: Sia. Wow, she freakin' swept this!

Best Rock Album

Birds of TokyoBirds of Tokyo (EMI)
Cloud ControlBliss Release (Ivy League Records/Universal)
Eddy Current Suppression RingRush to Relax (Suppression Records/Shock)
PowderfingerGolden Rule (UMA)
Tame Impala Innerspeaker (Modular Recordings)

Who should win: Tame Impala, at least in the continued absence of a Best Drone Psych-rock Album category.
Who will win: Powderfinger, with the nostalgia factor and all. Then again, Birds of Tokyo could take it since they actually rock harder than any of these other "rock" acts. But they won't, since Powderfinger will.
RESULT: Birds of Tokyo. Moral victory!

Best Urban Album

Bliss N EsoRunning on Air (Illusive Sounds)
LowriderRound the World (Illusive Sounds)
M-PhazesGood Gracious (Obese Records)
Space InvadasSoul-Fi (Invada/Inertia)
UrthboySpitshine (Elefant Traks/Inertia)

Who should win: Space Invadas.
Who will win: Keeping in mind that most of the people that vote for the ARIAs don't listen to things like metal, country, indie, dance or urban, the nominee with the highest rate of casual recognition will probably win. Therefore: Urthboy should be clearing some space on his mantel – although Bliss n Eso might want to tidy up too, just in case.
RESULT: M-Phazes. Alright, could not have been more wrong.

Breakthrough Artist

Amy MeredithRestless (Sony Music)
Cloud Control Bliss Release (Ivy League Records/Universal)
Philadelphia Grand JuryHope Is for Hopers (Normal People Making Music/Boomtown/Shock)
Tame ImpalaInnerspeaker (Modular Recordings)
WashingtonI Believe You Liar (Mercury/UMA)

Who should win: You know what? They all completely deserve it. Amy Meredith haven't got a prayer, but all of these are genuinely worthy contenders.
Who will win: Washington. No one's broken through more than she in 2010.
RESULT: Washington. OK, finishing on a win. That's a blessed relief.

ARIA Awards 2010Sydney Opera House, Sun 7 Nov. You can congratulate/mock Andrew P Street for the accuracy of his predictions from your own mobile device since he'll be drinkin' and live-tweetin' along with the Channel 10 broadcast on the night: follow him at @AndrewPStreet

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